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Population Density and Real Estate Prices
RESEARCH REPORT 2025

Population Density and Real Estate Prices

The Land Supply Crisis in Israel: Why Only 7% of Land is Available for Development

1

Background and Purpose of the Report

The State of Israel is one of the most densely populated countries in the OECD. Its population density increased from 278 inhabitants per square kilometer in 2000 to 447 inhabitants per square kilometer in 2026, and is expected to reach approximately 581 inhabitants per square kilometer in 2050 and over 922 inhabitants per square kilometer in 2065.

Purpose of the report: to provide a comprehensive overview of population and density trends in Israel compared to other OECD countries, and to analyze the structural land supply constraints that create unique investment opportunities in private land.

2

The Land Supply Crisis in Israel

Official data from the Israel Land Authority (December 2021)

21.7M
State area (dunams)
93%
Public ownership (state, KKL-JNF, Development Authority)
1.85M
Suitable for planning
1.59M
Remains for ILA (~7%)
0.26M
Private lands and local authorities

Details of the land distribution

Total area of the State of Israel (including the Golan Heights, excluding seas/lakes/Gaza/West Bank)
21.7 million dunams
Areas that cannot be planned: IDF firing zones, nature reserves and parks, national parks, KKL-JNF forests, agricultural plots*
14.7 million dunams
Area after reduction of restricted areas
7 million dunams
After subtracting built and planned areas, and areas in the planning stages by the ILA — area suitable for planning**
1.85 million dunams
Of which: land owned privately and by local authorities
0.26 million dunams
After subtracting private ownership and local authorities — what remains for the ILA to plan
1.59 million dunams only (about 7% of the country's land)

*There is some overlap between these areas.

**Open and agricultural areas, including contiguous areas of at least 50 dunams in size.

⚠️ Critical insight: Many believe that the ILA manages all of the country's land. Approximately 93% of the country's land is indeed owned by the State of Israel, the JNF, and the Development Authority — the areas managed by the ILA. However, in practice, after examining the division and planning designations, the ILA has only 1.59 million dunams left to plan (about 7% of the country's land).

3

The Private Land Opportunity

Why private land has unique value

Government land constraints

  • Subject to ILA tender processes
  • Long bureaucratic approval cycles
  • Political considerations in allocation
  • Limited release of new land for development

Investment implications

Of the 1.85 million dunams available for planning, approximately 260,000 dunams are owned privately or by local authorities — not under ILA control. These lands offer development potential independent of state tenders, and with growing demand from a population that increases by 2% per year, this is a rare asset with structural appreciation potential.

תיאור התמונה
Population Density and Real Estate Prices
4

Population and Density Trends

🇮🇱 Israel

Population density increased from about 278 people per km² in 2000 to about 403 in 2024. According to UN projections, density is expected to reach about 461 in 2030, 521 in 2040, and 581 in 2050. The Shoresh Institute predicts that by 2065 Israel will reach about 922 people per km².

🇳🇱 Netherlands

One of the most densely populated countries in Europe. In 2030, the expected density is about 460 people per km², with a moderate increase to about 520 by 2050.

🇰🇷 South Korea

A very densely populated country with about 520 people per km² today. Expected to show relative stability and even a slight decline in the long term due to low birth rates.

🇧🇪 Belgium

Its density is expected to gradually increase to about 410 people per km² by 2050.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Its density is expected to gradually increase to about 325 people per km² by 2050.

🇯🇵 Japan

Shows a downward trend in density due to an aging population — expected to drop from 325 to about 270 people per km² by 2050.

5

Graphs: Population Density and Real Estate Prices

Population density over time (people per km²)

Real estate price index over time (2010 index = 100)

Comparison: Density vs. Real Estate Prices (2025)

Percentage change: 2000 vs. 2025 (actual)

6

Key Insights

🇮🇱

Israel stands out on two levels

  • Highest density growth rate in the OECD (from 278 to 580+ over 50 years)
  • Particularly sharp increase in real estate prices (3× since 2000, 4.5×+ by 2050)

Severe land supply constraint

  • Out of 21.7 million dunams, only 1.59 million are available for planning by the ILA
  • Privately owned and local-authority lands (~260,000 dunams) offer a bypass to the bottleneck

The private land premium

  • Agricultural land awaiting rezoning represents a rare asset with appreciation potential
  • Not subject to ILA tenders — faster development potential
7

Sources

This analysis is intended for trend analysis and strategic comparison purposes, and not as independent official data.

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